分類: 馬克思學

The Kondratieff Cycle is a theory based on a study of nineteenth century price
behavior which included wages, interest rates, raw material prices, foreign
trade, bank deposits, and other data. He, like R.N. Elliott, Kondratieff was
convinced that his studies of economic, social, and cultural life proved that a
long term order of economic behavior existed and could be used for the purpose
of anticipating future economic developments.

He observed certain characteristics about the growth and contractionary phase
of the long wave. Among them, he detailed the number of years that the economy
expanded and contracted during each part of the half-century long cycle, which
industries suffer the most during the downwave, and how technology plays a role
in leading the way out of the contraction into the next upwave.

The fifty to fifty-four year cycle of catastrophe and renewal had been known
and observed by the Mayans of Central America and independently by the ancient
Israelites. Kondratieff’s observations represent the modern expression of this
cycle, which postulates that capitalist countries tend to follow the long
rhythmic pattern of approximately half a century.

In the idealized long wave model, which is illustrated in the diagram above,
the cycle (which averages 54 years in length) begins with the “upwave” during
which prices start to rise slowly along with a new economic expansion. By the
end of a 25-30 year upwave period, inflation is running very high. Its peak sets
the stage for a deep recession that jolts the economy. The recession, which
begins about the time commodity prices break from their highs, is longer and
deeper than any that took place during the upwave.

1086993291.bmpEventually, though, prices stabilize and the economy recovers, beginning a
period of selective expansion that normally lasts nearly a decade. Referred to
as the secondary plateau, the expansion persists, giving the impression that
“things are like they used to be,” but its anemic nature eventually takes its
toll as conditions within the economy never reach the dynamic state that
occurred during the upwave. The secondary plateau ends with a sudden shock
(financial panic/stock market crash) and the economy rolls over into the next
contractionary phase, which is characterized by deflation and the start of an
economic depression.

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The current revolution of the Kondratieff Wave began after the global economy
pulled out of a deflationary depression in the 1930s. Prices began to accelerate
upward after World War II, and reached the commodity price blowoff stage in
1980. Since that time, and then after the recession of 1990-1991 (much longer in
some locations such as California and Japan, the latter of which has never
really recovered from economic contraction), the global economy has been
treading the secondary plateau. During this period, consumers and investors
become aware that inflation is not accelerating Kondratieff Wave upward, and
disinflation becomes the buzz word. Paper assets such as stocks and bonds do
well since neither inflation nor deflation-both of which are damaging to stock
investment returns-hurts the marketplace.

But during the secondary plateau, the first signs of problems-the seeds of
the deflationary contraction soon to follow-become known. Isolated economies
fall into deflationary contraction, and telltale signs such as declining gold
prices begin to take hold. During the 1990s, it has been the Japanese economy
that slid first into deflationary contraction. Gold has already reached new
11-year lows and as yet shows no sign of a bottom.

The stock market crash of 1997 is the signal that the period of economic
growth along the secondary plateau is ending. Additional economies collapse and
plunge into deflationary contraction, as characterized during this revolution of
the Kondratieff cycle by the domino effect coming from Thailand, Indonesia,
Asia, and South America. Stronger economies such as those of Europe and North
America are likely to hang on until the last moment, then fall off into
deflationary contraction.

We can theorize at this time that these stronger economies, due to their
superior handling of monetary policy during the secondary plateau relative to
the countries that made serious enough mistakes to cause a plunge into serious
financial collapse, will not be affected as gravely as these other countries
with collapsing economies. However, no economy is exempt from the effects of the
contraction, which is felt worldwide.

Much controversy exists on whether the Kondratieff wave is valid for the post
WWII economy. Many have rejected it on the basis that the 54-year mark was
reached a decade ago, and should have been the trough. It can be argued,
however, that the start of the “up” cycle began in 1940 or 1945, rather than
1930. Also, life expectancy has increased in the 20th century. If the 54-60 year
cycle is based on generation aspects, then it would naturaly be ‘stretched’
beyond 60 years. Since these cycles of wars and economic birth and renewal occur
every 2-3rd generation, we can say that when the generation to last see a
depression dies off, it’s time for another cycle to begin.

The message of this revolution of the Kondratieff cycle, which is a cycle of
debt repudiation and not just of commodity price deflation (the deflation is
caused in part by defaulting debt and a contracting global monetary base, as we
have described in this report), is that humanity is much more aware of the
effects of the cycle than, say, in the 1930s, and that the contraction can be
handled. Although we have indicated that the masses have been in a state of
denial as to the likelihood that this type of economic collapse can actually
occur in this “new era,” as it always seems to be considered when the masses
fear the change from prosperity to economic contraction, awareness of the
problems that are becoming apparent and a recognition of the mistakes that were
made can serve to mitigate the contraction. When the y2k bug is factored in, we
can see that this collapse matches the Kodratieff trough. The great credit
bubble of the last 60 years will be washed away at the very trough predicted by
the Kondratieff wave.

However, two factors complicate the picture until this revolution of the
Kondratieff Cycle bottoms in 2003 when it can be expected that the collapsing
mound of debt will finally be cleaned out (enter y2k). First, European Union,
which takes its next step in 1999, represents a similar situation to that of
China’s assimilation of Hong Kong in that it represents a union of different
governments. Both the Western and Eastern worlds participated in the excess
speculation in Hong Kong leading up to the Crash of 1997. Falling government
constructs cause the masses to put too much faith in the free market, and excess
speculation results in a collapse. With European Union upcoming, changing
government structure to allow for a coordinated European economy has resulted in
too much investor confidence in the financial markets there, too. Thus, with the
Union coming right at the end of the Kondratieff Cycle, another financial market
collapse is likely to lead to a situation that gets worse before it gets better
there. In fact, precious resources required for y2k conversion are being
diverted to the ‘Euro’.

Second, Canada’s commodity-dependent economy presents an additional variable
to North America’s ability to withstand the forces of the deflationary
contraction now spreading across the globe. Although there will be periods of
rising commodity prices-perhaps the saving grace for economies such as Canada’s
(commodity and gold prices typically bottom right in the midst of the
deflationary contraction, as they did in 1932 at the depths of the Great
Depression)-this does complicate the picture with respect to anticipating Canada
and North America’s ability to “ride it out” with relatively little damage. In
fact, because we are so technologically dependant, we may suffer even more.

The Mayans were known for there intricate tracking of cycles such as this
one. By embracing the inevitability of the cycle, but not as a destiny but as a
tendency, they were able to mitigate its effects and emerge from the cycle
bottom in better condition that otherwise would have been possible. Will modern
humanity entering the 21st century take heed to the lessons of the past? We
certainly pray they do since a simple reality check is all that’s needed to
prevent the catastrophes now being seen in Asia and other countries. 

http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index22.html

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